中国省域直接空气碳捕集与封存(DACCS)全链净移除成本及效率预测

Provincial-level prediction of full-chain carbon removal cost and efficiency of direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS) in China

  • 摘要: 直接空气碳捕集(DAC)技术是指从空气中直接捕集CO2,结合运输封存实现CO2净移除的技术。为识别我国直接空气碳捕集与封存(DACCS)示范区域与降本增效路径,本文耦合生命周期评价(LCA)与DAC技术学习曲线,评估预测液体吸收与固体吸附工艺的净移除效率与成本。结果表明:DACCS不同情景下的全国平均液体技术净移除效率为17.0% ~69.8%,固体技术效率为77.9% ~89.0%;DACCS全国平均净移除成本均随DAC技术学习率和部署规模下降,2060年液体技术为1 336~1 970元/t,固体技术为394~1184元/t;2035年各省(自治区、直辖市)液体技术净移除效率差异显著,仅四川和云南达70% 以上,理论具备先行示范条件;能源相关碳排放下降提高了DACCS的净移除效率。从2035年到2060年,液体技术能源相关碳足迹平均占比由77.3% 降至45.7%,固体技术由68.3% 降至22.9%,表明能源环节对全链条碳排放的主导作用逐步减弱;从成本结构看,液体技术总体由能源成本主导,固体技术的主导成本则由捕集资本端逐步转向运输封存端。基于上述结果,建议选择非化石能源丰富供应省(自治区、直辖市)实施DACCS示范工程,通过规模效应和技术优化稳步降低成本,以扩大部署。

     

    Abstract: Direct air capture (DAC) removes CO2 directly from air and achieves net CO2 removal when coupled with transport and geological storage, thus becoming indispensable in global net-zero emissions pathways. This study proposes to identify demonstration regions and methods for cost reduction and performance improvement of direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS) in China. We coupled life-cycle assessment (LCA) with DAC learning curves to evaluate and project the net removal efficiency and cost of liquid-solvent absorption and solid-sorbent adsorption. The results show that the national average net removal efficiencies for liquid-based DACCS vary across scenarios, ranging from 17.0% to 69.8%, whereas solid-based technology demonstrates relative stability (77.9% ~89.0%). National average net removal costs of DACCS decline with higher learning rates and larger deployment scales. By 2060, the costs are projected to be 1 336~1 970 RMB/t for liquid-based technology and 394~1 184 RMB/t for solid-based route. There are significant provincial disparities in net removal efficiency for liquid-based technology in 2035, with only Sichuan and Yunnan provinces exceeding 70%, theoretically qualifying them as pilot demonstration. The solid-based technology, in contrast, maintains a steady efficiency of 78.6% ~84.1% across all provinces. Declining energy-related carbon emissions improve the net removal efficiency of DACCS. From 2035 to 2060, the proportion of energy-related carbon emissions drops from 77.3% to 45.7% for the liquid-based technology, and from 68.3% to 22.9% for the solid-based route, indicating that the dominant contribution of the energy supply stage to full-chain carbon emissions gradually weakens. The cost structure of the liquid route is generally energy-dominated, whereas the dominant cost component of the solid route shifts from capture-side capital expenditure to CO2 transport and storage. This study thus suggests that DACCS demonstration projects be implemented in provinces with abundant non-fossil energy supply, and deployment should be expanded through scale effects and technological improvements to steadily reduce costs and expand adoption.

     

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