中国能源新质生产力发展水平的统计测度及演化特征

New quality productive forces in energy in China: Statistical measurement and evolutionary characteristics

  • 摘要: 能源新质生产力是能源产业的系统性变革,当前新质生产力发展水平呈现出典型的区域非均衡特征,制约我国能源绿色转型的整体进程。选取2008—2021年我国30个省(自治区、直辖市)的能源新质生产力面板数据,使用面板熵值法测算了省级能源新质生产力发展水平,基于此运用Dagum基尼系数及其子群分解、核密度估计、马尔可夫链和β收敛检验模型分析了能源新质生产力的时空演变特征、不平等特征和空间收敛特征。结果表明:①我国能源新质生产力水平整体呈现波动趋势,2016—2021年略有上升; ② Dagum基尼系数及其子群分解显示,能源新质生产力发展水平存在区域差异,其主要来源是区域内差异; ③马尔可夫链模型显示,能源新质生产力水平存在较为明显的“高-高”聚集和“低-低”聚集的俱乐部趋同现象和马太效应; ④ β收敛检验模型显示,能源新质生产力水平存在β收敛特征。数据分析结果揭示了我国能源新质生产力发展的区域差异和动态演进规律,为因地制宜制定能源新质生产力发展策略提供依据。

     

    Abstract: New quality productive forces in energy represent a systemic transformation of the energy industry, current new quality productive development is characterized by a typical pattern of regional imbalance, hindering the overall progress of China's green energy transition. Taking the panel data from 30 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities) in China spanning from 2008 to 2021, this study used the entropy evaluation method to assess the provincial development of new quality productive forces in energy. Specifically, the spatiotemporal evolution, inequality, and spatial convergence of new quality productive forces in energy were analyzed via the decomposition method of Dagum Gini coefficient and its subgroups, kernel density estimation, Markov chain, and β convergence testing models. Results reveal: ① The overall new quality productive forces in energy in China exhibited a fluctuating trend, with a slight increase from 2016 to 2021. ② The Dagum Gini coefficient and its subgroup decomposition revealed regional disparities in the development of new quality productive forces in energy, with intra-regional differences being the primary source. ③ The Markov chain model demonstrated explicit "high-high" clustering and "low-low" club convergence in the new quality productive forces in energy, along with a Matthew effect. ④ The β convergence test revealed the existence of β convergence in the new quality productive forces in energy. The data analysis results reveal the regional disparities and dynamic evolution patterns of China's new quality productive forces in energy, providing empirical evidence for formulating region-specific strategies to cultivate and develop new quality productive forces in energy.

     

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