Scenario analysis of emergency management: macroscopic review and microscopic deconstruction
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摘要: 风险社会背景下，可预见和难以预见的风险因素明显增多，对我国应急管理体系和应急管理能力的现代化提出了更高要求。情景分析是对不确定性的未来进行研究的分析方法和实践工具，与突发事件应急管理中对不确定性因素的分析具有高度契合性。以突发事件应急管理情景分析为研究对象，运用CiteSpace软件绘制知识图谱，宏观审视应急管理情景分析研究的趋势与规律；微观上从理论修正与拓展、流程调整与规范、方法应用与实践三方面解构应急管理情景分析研究的内容与热点。结果表明：突发事件应急管理情景分析尚未形成清晰的研究主线，但具有较大潜力；研究内容呈现出多元化特征，但本土化研究相对较缺乏；当前研究不能满足实践需要，重大突发事件高度复杂性倒逼情景分析研究。Abstract: Under the background of risk society, the foreseeable and unforeseeable risk factors significantly increase, which puts forward higher requirements for the modernization of China's emergency management system and capability.Scenario analysis is an analytical method and practical tool to study the uncertain future.Emergency management highly relies on scenario analysis for investigating uncertain factors.Taking the situation analysis of emergency management as the research object, this paper put forward a knowledge graph by CiteSpace to examine the trend and law of the research.Specifically, it probed into the contents and hot spots of micro-deconstruction scenario analysis from theoretical revision and expansion, process adjustment and specification, method application and practice.The research shows that the scenario analysis of emergency management has not formed a clear research paradigm, but it has great potential; the research content is diversified, but the localization research is relatively deficient; Current research can not meet practical needs, and the high complexity of major emergencies invites scenario analysis research.
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Key words:
- scenario analysis /
- emergency /
- emergency management /
- CiteSpace
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图 1 年度发文数量
Figure 1. Annual publication quantity on emergency management Scenario Analysis studies
表 1 TOP10核心作者相关信息
Table 1. Information related to TOP10 high-yield authors
序号 作者姓名 发文量 初始发文年份 所属研究机构 1 王永明 5 2015 国家行政学院应急管理教研部 2 夏登友 4 2014 中国人民警察大学 3 刘德海 4 2011 东北财经大学 4 李群 3 2016 中国安全生产科学研究院 5 王建飞 3 2015 中国地震局工程力学研究所 6 于振 3 2016 全球能源互联网研究院 7 杨峰 3 2016 四川大学公共管理学院 8 赵宇 3 2012 中共重庆市委党校 9 盛勇 3 2015 中国安全生产科学研究院 10 姚乐野 3 2016 四川大学公共管理学院 
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表 2 高频关键词统计
Table 2. Statistics of high-frequency keywords
序号 关键词 频次 中介中心度 初始出现年份 序号 关键词 频次 中介中心度 初始出现年份 1 情景分析 37 0.65 2010 10 知识元 4 0.03 2013 2 情景构建 25 0.23 2012 11 应急资源 4 0.06 2013 3 突发事件 22 0.39 2006 12 大数据 3 0.03 2019 4 应急管理 21 0.22 2009 13 公共安全 3 0.01 2018 5 情景推演 7 0.09 2015 14 化工园区 3 0.04 2017 6 应急演练 6 0.16 2017 15 暴雨内涝 3 0.01 2013 7 应急预案 5 0.02 2015 16 自然灾害 3 0.04 2012 8 演化博弈 4 0.02 2014 17 情报感知 3 0.01 2016 9 情景要素 4 0.09 2017 18 应急决策 3 0.12 2013
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