Research on life cycle risk assessment of utility tunnel project base on AHP-Fuzzy
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摘要: 地下综合管廊建设投资大、涉及面广、运营周期长，为全面客观评价管廊面临的风险，本文以北京某管廊为对象，基于全生命周期理论，将管廊全寿命周期的6个阶段进行风险因素识别，建立了二级6个、三级43个的风险指标体系; 构建基于AHP和Fuzzy的管廊风险综合评判模型，并结合加权分布法验证了模型运算结果。研究结果显示，所研究管廊全寿命周期整体风险属于中等风险，其中报废阶段风险最高，其余依次为施工与竣工阶段、运营阶段、设计阶段、招投标阶段和决策阶段，并提出针对性的管理措施。Abstract: In order to comprehensively and objectively evaluate the risks faced by the underground comprehensive pipe corridor with large investment, wide coverage and long operation cycle, this paper takes a pipe corridor in Beijing as the object, based on the whole life cycle theory, identifies the risk factors in six stages of the whole life cycle of the pipe corridor, and establishes a risk index system consisting of 6 second-level and 43 third-level risk indicators. The comprehensive evaluation model of pipeline corridor risk based on AHP and Fuzzy was established, and the results were verified by weighted distribution method. The research results show that the overall risk of the whole life cycle of the studied pipe gallery belongs to the medium risk, of which the risk of abandonment stage is the highest, followed by construction and completion stage, operation stage, design stage, bidding stage and decision-making stage, and put forward targeted management measures.
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Key words:
- utility tunnel /
- risk evaluation /
- life cycle /
- comprehensive evaluation
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表 1 最终风险清单表
Table 1. Final risk checklist
阶段划分/Ai 风险因素/Aij 决策阶段A1 项目审批风险A11、项目融资风险A12、环境风险A13、项目公司风险A14、管理理念风险A15 设计阶段A2 管线入廊与管线同廊风险A21、设计规模风险A22、管廊节点及管线引出口设计风险A23、人员通行进出口和逃生口设计风险A24、防火分区的设计风险A25、综合管廊抗震设计风险A26、管廊内外部的最小间距设计风险A27、设计经验及技术风险A28、设计变更及延误风险A29 招投标阶段A3 招标单位暗箱操作风险A31、招标失败风险A32、合同文件有漏洞风险A33、招标文件内容不完备风险A34 施工及竣工阶段A4 地质条件不佳风险A41、施工质量风险A42、施工安全风险A43、造价超支风险A44、工期延误风险A45、自然不可抗力风险A46、设备材料价格浮动及质量风险A47、焊接质量风险A48、管线试压及漏点修复风险A49、环境破坏风险A410、竣工验收不合格风险A411 运营阶段A5 运营期责任不明确风险A51、利率及通货膨胀风险A52、经营管理风险A53、运营成本风险A54、需求风险A55、周围环境及不可抗力风险A56、人为破坏风险A57、运维费收取风险A58、政府补贴发放风险A59、入廊费用支付风险A510 报废阶段A6 报废资产核算风险A61、国有资产流失风险A62、变卖价格风险A63、残值风险A64 
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表 2 一级指标及二级指标权重
Table 2. Weight of the first-level and second-level risk indicator
一级指标 权重 二级指标 权重 一级指标 权重 二级指标 权重 决策阶段A1 0.057 A11 0.402 施工及竣工阶段A4 0.219 A41 0.271 A42 0.084 A43 0.013 A12 0.237 A44 0.076 A45 0.102 A13 0.180 A46 0.065 A47 0.098 A14 0.103 A48 0.055 A49 0.023 A15 0.078 A410 0.079 A411 0.134 设计阶段A2 0.145 A21 0.164 运营阶段A5 0.402 A51 0.185 A22 0.288 A52 0.066 A53 0.114 A23 0.247 A54 0.112 A24 0.082 A55 0.145 A25 0.023 A56 0.119 A26 0.018 A57 0.057 A27 0.074 A58 0.140 A28 0.068 A59 0.030 A29 0.036 A510 0.032 招标投标阶段A3 0.155 A31 0.155 报废阶段A6 0.022 A61 0.156 A32 0.451 A62 0.276 A33 0.297 A63 0.093 A34 0.097 A64 0.475
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表 3 全寿命周期风险值表
Table 3. Life cycle risk value table
建设周期 决策阶段 设计阶段 招投标阶段 施工与竣工阶段 运营阶段 报废阶段 整体 风险值 1.866 2.386 1.967 2.915 2.580 4.059 2.528
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