Scenario analysis of emergency management: macroscopic review and microscopic deconstruction

Under the background of risk society, the foreseeable and unforeseeable risk factors significantly increase, which puts forward higher requirements for the modernization of China's emergency management system and capability.Scenario analysis is an analytical method and practical tool to study the uncertain future.Emergency management highly relies on scenario analysis for investigating uncertain factors.Taking the situation analysis of emergency management as the research object, this paper put forward a knowledge graph by CiteSpace to examine the trend and law of the research.Specifically, it probed into the contents and hot spots of micro-deconstruction scenario analysis from theoretical revision and expansion, process adjustment and specification, method application and practice.The research shows that the scenario analysis of emergency management has not formed a clear research paradigm, but it has great potential; the research content is diversified, but the localization research is relatively deficient; Current research can not meet practical needs, and the high complexity of major emergencies invites scenario analysis research.