基于PCA-HPO-ELM的智能化矿井瓦斯涌出量预测研究

Gas emission prediction of intelligent mines based on PCA-HPO-ELM

  • 摘要: 随着煤矿开采智能化的发展,煤矿安全事故发生率逐年下降,而准确预测矿井瓦斯涌出量是保障安全生产与提升效率的关键环节之一。为满足现代煤矿智能化管理需求,改善传统预测方法在处理高维数据时存在的计算复杂、精度不足等问题,提出了主成分分析-猎人猎物优化-极限学习机(PCA-HPO-ELM)智能化矿井瓦斯涌出量预测模型。首先,选取煤层厚度、开采深度等13种关键影响因素,利用主成分分析(PCA)将数据从13维降至4维,既降低维度又保留主要信息,为模型训练奠定基础;其次,引入猎人猎物优化(HPO)算法解决传统极限学习机(ELM)模型输入权值和隐含层阈值选择的随机性问题,实现瓦斯涌出量的精准预测;最后,利用相同数据集对比了PCA-HPO-ELM、PCA-PSO-ELM和PCA-ELM模型的预测结果。结果表明:PCA-HPO-ELM模型迭代速度优于PCA-PSO-ELM模型,预测矿井瓦斯涌出量的决定系数R2达0.993 76,高于后两者(分别为0.988 5和0.894 3),表现出优越性,该模型为智能化矿井瓦斯涌出量的预测精度和效率的提升具有借鉴作用。

     

    Abstract: The intelligent development of coal mining leads to decreasing annual coal mine safety accidents, yet safety production still requires constant vigilance. Accurate prediction of mine gas emission is vital to ensuring safe production and improving efficiency. Conventional prediction methods are deficient for their complex calculation and insufficient accuracy in dealing with high-dimensional data, unable to satisfy modern intelligent management of coal mines. Therefore, proposes a Principal Component Analysis-Hunter Prey Optimization-Extreme Learning Machine (PCA-HPO-ELM) model for gas emission prediction of intelligent mines: 1) 13 key influencing factors such as coal seam thickness and mining depth were selected, and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was used to reduce the data from 13 dimensions to 4 dimensions. This not only reduced the dimension but also retained the main information, laying a foundation for model training; 2) Hunter Prey Optimization (HPO) algorithm was introduced to solve the randomness of the input weights and hidden layer threshold selection of the traditional Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) model, and the accurate prediction of gas emission is realized. PCA-HPO-ELM, PCA-PSO-ELM and PCA-ELM models were compared using the same data for the proposed models. Results show that the PCA-HPO-ELM model exhibited better iteration speed than the PCA-PSO-ELM model, and the determination coefficient R2 of predicting mine gas emission was 0.993 76, higher than that of the other two (0.988 54 and 0.894 3, respectively), showing superiority; the model can be used for reference to improve the prediction accuracy and efficiency of intelligent mine gas emission.

     

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