基于频谱声学方法的深部掘进工作面瓦斯浓度预测研究

Prediction of gas concentration in deep heading face based on the frequency spectrum acoustic method

  • 摘要: 瓦斯浓度的精准预测是防范深部煤矿动力灾害的关键。针对当前瓦斯浓度预测依赖大量历史数据及动静态参数的不足,引入俄罗斯煤矿的频谱声学方法。采用灰色关联度分析(GRA)和系统聚类分析(HCA)从频谱声学方法人工声学信号指标中筛选出与瓦斯浓度关联紧密的指标;采用模拟退火算法(SAA)中迭代退火策略确定变分模态分解(VMD)中模态分量总数K和惩罚系数α,借助优化后的VMD将含噪瓦斯浓度信号解构成数个频率不同但相对平稳的模态分量;通过SAA随机扰动策略验证广义回归神经网络(GRNN)优化模型光滑因子σ的最优值,利用改进后的GRNN优化模型有效预测各模态分量并重构各预测结果。研究结果表明:通过“解构-预测-聚合”机制能够有效压制噪声干扰和明显降低非线性复杂程度,从而提高预测模型的准确性;与4种对照模型相比,基于频谱声学方法的VMD-SAA-GRNN优化模型在瓦斯浓度动态预测中表现出更强的泛化能力和更高的精度。研究结果可为深部掘进工作面瓦斯防治提供参考。

     

    Abstract: Accurate gas concentration prediction is crucial for preventing dynamic disasters in deep coal mines. To address the limitations of current prediction methods that rely heavily on historical data and dynamic-static parameters, the frequency spectrum acoustic method employed in Russian coal mines was introduced. Indicators closely related to gas concentration were screened from artificial acoustic signal indicators of the frequency spectrum acoustic method using Grey Relational Analysis (GRA) and Hierarchical Cluster Analysis (HCA). The iterative annealing strategy of the Simulated Annealing Algorithm (SAA) was applied to determine the number of modal components (K) and the penalty coefficient (α) in Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD). The optimized VMD was then used to decompose noisy gas concentration signals into several relatively stable intrinsic mode functions with different frequencies. The optimal smoothing factor (σ) of the Generalized Regression Neural Network (GRNN) was identified through the stochastic perturbation strategy of SAA. The refined GRNN model was utilized to effectively predict each modal component and reconstruct the prediction results. The findings demonstrate that the "decomposition-prediction-reconstruction" mechanism effectively suppresses noise interference and significantly reduces nonlinear complexity, thereby enhancing prediction accuracy. Compared with four alternative models, the VMD-SAA-GRNN model based on the frequency spectrum acoustic method exhibits superior generalization capability and higher precision in dynamic gas concentration prediction, providing a valuable reference for gas control in deep tunneling faces.

     

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