基于AHP-Fuzzy的管廊项目全寿命周期风险评价研究

Research on life cycle risk assessment of utility tunnel project base on AHP-Fuzzy

  • 摘要: 地下综合管廊建设投资大、涉及面广、运营周期长,为全面客观评价管廊面临的风险,本文以北京某管廊为对象,基于全生命周期理论,将管廊全寿命周期的6个阶段进行风险因素识别,建立了二级6个、三级43个的风险指标体系; 构建基于AHP和Fuzzy的管廊风险综合评判模型,并结合加权分布法验证了模型运算结果。研究结果显示,所研究管廊全寿命周期整体风险属于中等风险,其中报废阶段风险最高,其余依次为施工与竣工阶段、运营阶段、设计阶段、招投标阶段和决策阶段,并提出针对性的管理措施。

     

    Abstract: In order to comprehensively and objectively evaluate the risks faced by the underground comprehensive pipe corridor with large investment, wide coverage and long operation cycle, this paper takes a pipe corridor in Beijing as the object, based on the whole life cycle theory, identifies the risk factors in six stages of the whole life cycle of the pipe corridor, and establishes a risk index system consisting of 6 second-level and 43 third-level risk indicators. The comprehensive evaluation model of pipeline corridor risk based on AHP and Fuzzy was established, and the results were verified by weighted distribution method. The research results show that the overall risk of the whole life cycle of the studied pipe gallery belongs to the medium risk, of which the risk of abandonment stage is the highest, followed by construction and completion stage, operation stage, design stage, bidding stage and decision-making stage, and put forward targeted management measures.

     

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