基于图论-AHP管廊灾害影响评价及减灾分析

Utility tunnel disaster impact assessment and disaster reduction analysis based on graph theory and AHP

  • 摘要: 地下综合管廊内有多种市政管线,一旦发生事故将造成巨大的财产损失和社会影响。准确评估管廊运营阶段灾害影响值,定量分析灾害的影响范围和影响程度可以实现防灾减灾的目的。本文通过分析管廊内外部致灾因素演化过程和运营阶段的灾害演化路径,基于图论和AHP方法建立灾害评价模型;以通州A段管廊项目为背景,运用所建模型得到该段管廊各灾害影响值,确定出需要重点管理的灾害链。研究结果表明:通州A段管廊灾害影响值较大的因素为爆炸、地震、质量和设计问题,并针对致灾因子、孕灾环境、承灾体等方面的灾害链提出了断链减灾管理方案。研究成果可为管廊防灾减灾提供借鉴。

     

    Abstract: There are a variety of municipal pipelines in the underground utility tunnel, and once an accident occurs, the property loss and social impact will be huge. Disaster prevention and reduction can be achieved by accurately evaluating the impact value of disasters in the operation stage of utility tunnel and quantitatively analyzing the impact range and degree of disasters. This paper analyzes the evolution process of the internal and external disaster-causing factors and the disaster evolution path in the operation stage, and establishes a disaster evaluation model based on graph theory and AHP method. Taking Tongzhou section A utility tunnel project as the background, the model was used to obtain the impact values of each disaster in the utility tunnel and determine the disaster chain that needs to be managed. The research shows that the major factors affecting the disaster value of Tongzhou section A utility tunnel are explosions, earthquakes, quality problems and design problems. A chain-broken disaster reduction in terms of hazard factors, disaster-pregnant environment and disaster-bearing bodies is proposed. The research results can provide reference for disaster prevention and reduction of utility tunnel.

     

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