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基于模糊多准则决策模型的废弃矿井抽水蓄能电站选址研究

王兵 刘朋帅 邓凯磊

王兵, 刘朋帅, 邓凯磊. 基于模糊多准则决策模型的废弃矿井抽水蓄能电站选址研究[J]. 矿业科学学报, 2021, 6(6): 667-677. doi: 10.19606/j.cnki.jmst.2021.06.005
引用本文: 王兵, 刘朋帅, 邓凯磊. 基于模糊多准则决策模型的废弃矿井抽水蓄能电站选址研究[J]. 矿业科学学报, 2021, 6(6): 667-677. doi: 10.19606/j.cnki.jmst.2021.06.005
Wang Bing, Liu Pengshuai, Deng Kailei. Site selection of pumped storage power station in abandoned mines: Results from fuzzy-based multi criteria decision model[J]. Journal of Mining Science and Technology, 2021, 6(6): 667-677. doi: 10.19606/j.cnki.jmst.2021.06.005
Citation: Wang Bing, Liu Pengshuai, Deng Kailei. Site selection of pumped storage power station in abandoned mines: Results from fuzzy-based multi criteria decision model[J]. Journal of Mining Science and Technology, 2021, 6(6): 667-677. doi: 10.19606/j.cnki.jmst.2021.06.005

基于模糊多准则决策模型的废弃矿井抽水蓄能电站选址研究

doi: 10.19606/j.cnki.jmst.2021.06.005
基金项目: 

国家自然科学基金 52142302

中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金 2021YQNY01

详细信息
    作者简介:

    王兵(1987—),男,湖南张家界人,博士,副教授,主要从事能源系统工程、可持续发展战略研究工作。Tel:15201158446,E-mail:bingwang_bit@163.com

  • 中图分类号: TD98

Site selection of pumped storage power station in abandoned mines: Results from fuzzy-based multi criteria decision model

  • 摘要: 抽水蓄能电站建设投资大,对环境、社会、经济和安全要求严格,电站选址面临诸多因素制约。废弃矿井拥有天然高差和空间资源,将废弃矿井改造成抽水蓄能电站,可节约成本、缩短建设工期。本文基于阈值理论提出废弃矿井抽水蓄能电站选址初步筛选模型,运用专家意见与三角模糊TOPSIS决策耦合模型对通过初步筛选的矿井进行综合评价与优化排序,结合可持续发展和资源再利用要求,提出了最佳抽水蓄能电站选址的多阶段决策过程和方法体系。结果表明:选址决策的关键性指标分别为矿井水量、水位差、与电网的距离、地下空间、地震发生频率、地下围岩支护稳定性和当地用电量,矿井本身的自然条件在抽水蓄能电站改造中起决定性作用。备选矿井中石圪节煤矿最适合开展矿后抽水蓄能电站建设。
  • 图  1  抽水蓄能废弃矿井选址决策因素

    Figure  1.  Decision factors for site selection of pumped storage power station in abandoned mines

    表  1  废弃矿井抽水蓄能选址的决策指标及模型方法

    Table  1.   Decision index and method for site selection of pumped storage power station in abandoned mines

    研究方向 研究内容
    决策指标 自然环境   上水库、输水洞线、地下厂房位置以及下水库的选择,都需要考虑周边地质地形条件[22]
      抽水蓄能电站上、下库之间的水平距离与水头之比也会影响电站的经济性[23]
    经济因素   静态总投资、机电与建筑物、上下水库以及厂房的修建难易程度[13]
      当前的技术、实践、操作维护及使用抽水蓄能系统存储风能和太阳能带来的利益[24]
    矿井本身特有因素   地下空间利用、稳定支护及密闭、地下水源及防渗、地下工程布置[25]
      地形、水文、电网等方面影响系统可行性[26]
      地下水库安全运行技术、水库综合调运技术和水质控制技术等[27]
    决策方法 指标权重法   多属性决策指标权重的确定方法包括主观赋权法、客观赋权法、主客观赋权法[28]
      结构熵权法:将德尔菲专家调查法与模糊分析法相结合,形成“典型排序”[29]
    模糊层次分析法   模糊层次分析法确定指标的相对权重,用灰色关联分析法计算指标间的灰色关联系数,并建立评价对象的关联序列[30]
    熵权模糊综合评价法   建立评价体系,采用模糊层次分析法、熵权法确定主客观权重,构建基于离差平方和最小的人为系数法整合主观权重和客观权重得到综合权重[31]
    模糊多准则决策法   直觉梯形模糊数和区间直觉梯形模糊数[32]
      乘法偏好关系和模糊偏好关系收集决策者对准则权重的偏好,利用目标规划方法进行建模并确定各个准则的相对权重;然后用模糊TOPSIS方法进行评估[19]
      三角模糊数型多准则决策的拓展VIKOR方法[33]
      多属性决策方法TOPSIS法,并结合矩估计理论对指标权重进行优化集成[34]
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  各指标相对权重

    Table  2.   Relative weight of each index

    指标 综合权重 指标 综合权重
    水头 0.110 太阳辐射时间 0.031
    地下空间 0.069 与公共设施距离 0.024
    地质条件 0.054 与公路线距离 0.020
    巷道长度 0.037 当地最高抽水电价 0.036
    矿井水资源 0.030 与电网距离 0.050
    与城市距离 0.056 场地改造难易程度 0.034
    土地利用率 0.018 地质灾害发生频率 0.048
    当地用电量 0.048 地质稳定性 0.047
    就业率 0.016 岩土透水率 0.053
    当地有效风速 0.036 地震类别 0.074
    平均降水量 0.029 地下围岩支护稳定性 0.080
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3  指标评价语言变量的三角模糊数对照表

    Table  3.   Comparison table of triangular fuzzy numbers for evaluating linguistic variables

    语言变量 方案评价三角模糊数
    极差(VP) (0,0,1)
    非常差(P) (0,1,3)
    差(MP) (1,3,5)
    一般(M) (3,5,7)
    好(MG) (5,7,9)
    非常好(G) (7,9,10)
    极好(VG) (9,10,10)
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  4  决策者ek方案打分表

    Table  4.   Scoring table for scheme of decision maker ek

    方法 属性
    c1 c2 cn
    A1 x11(k) x12(k) x1n(k)
    A2 x21(k) x22(k) x2n(k)
    Am xm1(k) xm2(k) xmn(k)
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  5  废弃矿井抽水蓄能备选地点与决策因素

    Table  5.   Alternative locations and decision factors of pumped storage in abandoned mines

    备选地点代号 备选地点名称 决策因素代号 决策因素
    A1 山西省霍西煤田 C1 水头
    A2 山西煤炭运销集团左权盘城岭煤业 C2 地下空间
    A3 隆化井田 C3 与电网距离
    A4 山西麦怡源煤业 C4 地震发生频率
    A5 抚顺罕王傲牛矿业 C5 地下围岩支护稳定性
    A6 山西天润煤化集团德通煤业 C6 当地用电量
    A7 石圪节煤矿 C7 矿井水量
    C8 与城市距离
    下载: 导出CSV
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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2021-03-29
  • 修回日期:  2021-06-22
  • 刊出日期:  2021-12-01

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